According to folklore, if a woolly bear caterpillar’s rust-colored band is wide, it’s going to be a mild winter, but the more black there is, the more severe the season ahead. (Shutterstock),
What’s ahead for winter 2024-25? People with meteorology degrees and forecasting experience have spoken. But what do banded woolly bear caterpillars and persimmons say?
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Although certainly less scientific than those from people trained to look ahead at weather trends, or scientific at all, persimmon and woolly bear readings are part of American folklore.
Here’s the gist:
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- Woolly bears: If the fuzzy caterpillar’s rust-colored band is wide, it’s going to be a mild winter. The more black there is, the more severe the season ahead.
- Persimmons: If the shape of a split-open persimmon seeds looks like a knife, be prepared for icy winds that will cut to the bone. A spoon shape portends plentiful show to shovel, and a fork suggests winter will be mild.
Such folklore may make sense only in certain parts of the country. And even in places where people are splitting persimmon seeds over the type of winter we’ll have, it may not make sense to anyone under 40 or so. Or 60. Understanding of these folk traditions is random.
Colonists Read Woolly Bears
People have been looking at woolly bear caterpillars — actually the larvae of Isabella tiger moths and other moth species — to tell them what kind of winter lies ahead for longer than they’ve been consulting a groundhog on when it will end.
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These furry creatures are known by other names. In parts of New England and the Midwest, they’re known as “woolly bears.” And other places, they’re known as a “fuzzy bear caterpillar,” a “woolly worm,” or a “hedgehog caterpillar” because they curl into a ball and play dead when picked up or disturbed. At the foundation of the legend is that woolly bears have 13-segment bodies, which are said to represent the approximate number of weeks in winter.
The idea that woolly bear colorings foretell the severity of winter has been around since Colonial times but was popularized in 1948 when Dr. Howard Curran, a curator of entomology at the American Museum of Natural History, invited a New York Herald Tribune reporter to tag along on a field study, where he examined the bands on 15 of the caterpillars and made a prediction winter. The story was picked up by wire services and has since been cemented in American folklore.
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There are multiple iterations of the woolly bear legend.
Not only does more black than rust color supposedly mean a severe winter, the position of the longest dark bands is said to indicate which part of winter will be most severe. If the head end of the caterpillar is black, winter will get off to a nasty start. If the tail end is dark, the end of winter will be cold.
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There are a couple more versions of the story. In some places, it’s believed that if the woolly caterpillar seems to have a lot of hair, it’s going to be a cold winter. The coat, though, is just nature’s way of protecting the caterpillar against the harsh elements of winter. Banded woolly bears can live up to 10 years or for as little as a few months, depending on the species and environment in which they live.
Another version of the legend holds that if the woolly bear is crawling in a southerly direction, it is trying to escape the brutal winter ahead. If the caterpillar seems to be on a northward path, winter will be warm and mild.
In truth, the woolly bear’s color has more to do with its age, its species and whether it had enough to eat over the growing season. If it’s big with only a bit of orange and brown coloring, the worm has had plenty to eat. Woolly bear bands tell scientists other things about its life cycle, but nothing about the weather, according to the National Weather Service.
Is The Proof In The Fruit?
The practice of splitting persimmon seeds to predict how harsh winter will be seems to have developed in the Ozark Mountains. (Shutterstock
Persimmons are having an “it” moment. They’re rich in vitamins A and C, as well as manganese, which helps blood clot, and other antioxidants that reduce the risk of serious problems like cancer and stroke. The taste is bitter and astringent until they fully ripen, at which point they are soft and sweet.
But don’t think any persimmon plucked from the produce bin will do when it comes to weather predictions. It is crucial to get a persimmon from a local tree or farmers market. (American persimmon trees can grow virtually anywhere that winter temperatures don’t dip below 25 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, so the fruit is not that hard to find.)
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And the forecast will be unreliable with a persimmon shipped in from who knows where. You may see forks and actually experience knives.
Here’s how to check:
Slice the fruit in half to reveal 10 seeds, then slice the persimmon seeds, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac. The first cut-open seed represents the first week of winter, and so on, until you’re through 10 weeks of winter. You may see knives, forks and spoons in the same fruit.
This bit of folklore seems to be rooted in the Ozark Mountains, which are located primarily in Missouri and Arkansas.
The accuracy of the persimmon forecasts is suspect, according to the University of Vermont’s Center for Teaching and Learning. The people sharing pictures of the seeds on social media don’t exactly swear by the results, but it’s a fun way for family and friends to grumble about the coming winter.
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What Do Weather Scientists Say?
Neither of these forecasting methods from folklore is scientifically reliable. But neither is the time-honored forecast from Punxsutawney Phil, a groundhog that pokes its head out in the wilds of Pennsylvania every Feb. 2 to predict how long winter will last.
What do the people with degrees and credentials say about winter?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter forecast says a developing weak La Niña lacks some of the blustery punch usually seen in such climate patterns and winter will be warmer in most parts of the country. Expected snowfall and other precipitation is a mixed bag.
The Weather Company, an IBM-owned business, expects record warmth to continue across much of the country into November before temperatures become chillier in December.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for a “calmer, gentler winter,” while The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a wet, cold winter and “a season of rapid-fire storms that will bring both rain and snow, with little downtown in between.”
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