Infectious disease experts are worried that vaccine hesitancy will cause the United States to lose herd immunity to once-common childhood diseases such as measles, polio, rubella and others that have been considered eradicated. (Shutterstock/Alexander_Safonov),
An ongoing measles outbreak may be the “canary in the coal mine” signaling public health dangers as vaccine hesitancy grows, according to a new report from the investigative journalism site ProPublica.
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Spiking rates of pertussis — or whooping cough rates, coupled with lower vaccine coverage — are another bellwether of a return of childhood illnesses, the ProPublica report said. Like measles, whooping cough is preventable by vaccine.
According to the report, mnmeasles vaccine rates fell below herd immunity rates in 39 states in 2023. Most states also saw a corresponding drop in pertussis vaccination rates between 2013 and 2023.
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“This is not just measles,” Dr. Adam Ratner, a pediatric infectious diseases doctor in New York City and author of the book “Booster Shots: The Urgent Lessons of Measles and the Uncertain Future of Children’s Health,” told ProPublica, “It’s a bright-red warning light.”
Cases of pertussis, the disease that causes the intense coughing spells is known, have skyrocketed by more than 1,500 percent nationwide since hitting a record low during the pandemic, according to ProPublica, which used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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Pertussis can be life-threatening in infants and young children, leading to pneumonia, pauses in breathing, dehydration, and even brain damage. On average, between two and four people a year die from whooping cough. Last year, 10 people died and so far this year, two people and possibly a third have died as whooping cough cases are on track to exceed reported illnesses in 2024.
There were 35,435 reported pertussis cases nationwide last year, with the incidence rate about 10.63 cases per 100,000 residents, according to the CDC’s 2024 provisional pertussis surveillance report. The CDC doesn’t have public-facing data on 2025 whooping cough cases.
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ProPublica’s review of state health department records shows that two babies in Louisiana have died of pertussis in the last six months; Washington state just reported its first confirmed death from pertussis in more than a decade; Idaho and South Dakota each reported a death this year; and Oregon last year reported two as well as its highest number of cases since 1950.
At the same time, measles has sickened 800 people in 10 outbreaks so far this year, according to the most recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. An outbreak is defined as one in which there are three or more related cases. The agency said 94 percent of cases this year are part of an outbreak.
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Cases have been confirmed in 25 jurisdictions: Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York City, New York State, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Washington.
ProPublica said that statewide vaccination rates can be deceiving because some counties and communities have far lower vaccination rates, driving outbreaks.
“My concern is that there is going to be a large outbreak of not just measles, but other vaccine-preventable diseases as well, that’s going to end up causing a lot of harm, and possibly deaths in children and young adults,” Dr. Anna Durbin, a professor in the Department of International Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health who has spent her career studying vaccines, told ProPublica.
“And it’s completely preventable,” Durbin said.
» Read the full report on ProPublica
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